US Elections: The Impact of the US Election In The Global Arena
In the United States, the popular vote does not determine election outcomes, instead, the Electoral College does. States receive a certain number of electors according to the size of their population within that system. Most states give all their electoral votes to the candidate who receives the highest number of votes in that state.
In order to be victorious in the election, a presidential nominee needs to secure 270 Electoral College votes, leading to intriguing electoral calculations.
The US election is a crucial event, bearing significant consequences for both the US and global economies. The highly competitive race between the current Democratic vice-president, Kamala Harris, and the former Republican president, Donald Trump, is too close to call.
Given the various beliefs across a range of issues between the Democrats and the Republicans, there are several international policies that could be influenced depending on which party wins.
- Trade: Ms Harris will maintain a protectionist leaning in US trade policy, placing emphasis mainly on China. It is expected that Mr Trump’s administration will push for widespread tariffs, leading to some resistance from US businesses and trading partners which may lead to a dilution of the proposals, but executive orders will still be used to enforce higher rates. These tariffs will raise prices for American consumers and impact US exports as other countries retaliate with countermeasures.
- Immigration: Both candidates will have stricter immigration policies, with Ms Harris likely supporting improving legal migration options, while Mr Trump would focus on reducing overall immigration. We anticipate increased likelihood of disturbance in the labor market and restrictions under Mr. Trump, leading to stronger inflationary forces.
- Tax: Both candidates are unconcerned about the vast US fiscal deficit. Despite this, the deficit is expected to decrease due to Ms. Harris’s proposals to increase revenue by raising corporation taxes and eliminating personal income tax cuts. Mr Trump’s goal is to finalize the tax cuts permanently, and while deregulation is a key focus of his campaign, he has not provided details on any corresponding spending cuts.
By Hussein Waiyaki
