‘A Quater of world crops faces water stress risks’ experts warn

Experts have indicated that water risks threaten one in four of the world’s crops, particularly in regions where water availability is either highly stressed, highly unreliable, or bothconditions that may worsen hunger.

These insights were shared in October 2024 on the World Resources Institute (WRI)’s Aqueduct platform, following a report by Forest Pulse on recent trends in global forest loss and deforestation.

Forest Pulse provides an annual update on tree cover loss data to offer a comprehensive overview of global forest degradation.

In 2023, the world experienced a concerning rate of tree loss, nearly equivalent to the area of 10 football fields of tropical primary forest per minute. However, there were positive developments, such as Brazil and Colombia achieving reductions in primary forest loss by 46 percent and 49 percent, respectively.

WRI experts also presented a historical overview of carbon emissions, illustrating which countries have contributed most to climate change and how this list has evolved over the past two centuries.

The new WRI analysis highlights that a quarter of the world’s crops are cultivated in regions where water supply is highly stressed or unreliable. Increasing threats from climate change and intensifying competition for water are jeopardizing water availability and consequently, food security.

Rice, wheat, and corn, which together provide over half of the global food calories, are especially at risk; 33 percent of these staple crops rely on water supplies that are either highly stressed or variable.

These escalating water challenges coincide with rising food demands. Research projects that the world will need to produce 56 percent more food calories by 2050 than in 2010 to sustain a projected population of 10 billion.

Both irrigated and rain-fed crops are increasingly under threat. Farmers utilize either natural rainfall or irrigation, diverting water from rivers or reservoirs or extracting it from underground sources.

Both crop types play critical roles in food security but face mounting risks. Irrigated crops account for 34 percent of global production by weight and are threatened by growing competition for shared water resources, referred to as water stress.

Conversely, rain-fed crops, which constitute the remaining 66 percent of global production, are susceptible to irregular weather patterns. Notably, 8 percent of the world’s rain-fed crops are cultivated in areas experiencing high to extremely high fluctuations in annual water supply, where rainfall may vary dramatically between drought and deluge.

Water stress is classified as “high” when at least 40 percent of local water supply is used to fulfill the needs of agriculture, industry, power generation, and households. Currently, approximately 60 percent of the world’s irrigated crops (by weight) are being produced in regions facing high or extremely high levels of water stress.
The challenge of cultivating crops in both highly stressed and highly variable regions lies in the lack of a sufficient supply buffer to withstand weather-related shocks like extended droughts. Heightened competition for water and the impacts of climate change are pushing available resources to their limits. Consequently, the production of food in these areas jeopardizes food security.